Sunday, September 25, 2011

Solar Flare Alert: 'Persistent Warning' until 27th September 2011

Reader Contribution;

Image: Latest GOES Solar X-ray Image

2200Z September 24, 2011 - NOAA Region 1302 remains impressive and active as it continues its transit across the visible disc. As shown in the GOES X-ray plot below, 1302 produced an R3 (Strong) and multiple R2 (Moderate) flares today.

Intermittent degradation to High Frequency communications occurs on the daylight side of the Earth during each respective flare. Also, the slow rise of energetic protons near Earth has flattened out and we are hovering right around the S1 threshold (NOAA Solar Radiation Storm Scales).

A fairly fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the long duration R2 flare is partially directed at Earth (long duration meaning long-lasting in time and wider in the graph below, as opposed to the impulsive flares that spike quickly). We won't see the bulk of this CME, but a glancing blow is predicted for late eventing Eastern Time on the 25th (or right around the start of day GMT on the 26th). Geomagnetic Storm levels reaching the G1 (Minor) level are likely with isolated G2 (Moderate) possible, particularly at high latitudes. 1302 remains active. Source

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